After all the writing I've been doing about my own alternative awards for the best in film from 2009, I'm kind of sick of talking about awards, but I still wanted to post my predictions for who will actually win this year's Oscars. So here goes...Best Picture
Nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air
My prediction: The Hurt Locker. Because critics simply loved this movie more than any other this year. It has a whopping 97% Fresh rating on Rottentomatoes.com, which is insane even for a critically loved film. Avatar had too many complaints against it, and James Cameron has won Best Picture before. Precious and District 9 don't have a shot, since they are both from (relative) newcomers. The Blind Side is exactly the kind of movie that caused the Academy to expand the category to ten nominees - a crowd-pleaser to whom they have no intention of actually giving the award. An Education and A Serious Man both received plenty of good reviews, but nobody really thought either was the best of the year. As far as Up goes, animated films just don't win Best Picture, and even though it was pretty much loved by all, Up is not going to be the movie to change that. Inglourious Basterds and Up in the Air are the two films which I would guess have the best shot at snatching the award away from The Hurt Locker, but when it comes down to it, The Hurt Locker was too universally praised to not win.
Best Actor
Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
My Prediction: Jeff Bridges. Because the guy is long overdue. This is his fifth nomination, and he's already won the Golden Globe and Screen Actor's Guild awards for this performance. While Jeremy Renner might have a slight chance, the Academy is much more likely to give the award to a well-respected multiple nominee like Bridges than an actor who's just starting to get people's attention.
Best Actress
Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
My Prediction: Sandra Bullock. Because the world is stupid. And the Academy has a tendency to mistake melodramatically speaking in a bad southern accent for acting. Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep are just nominated because they are Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep, and neither of their performances drew much praise beyond that. Maybe, just maybe either Carey Mulligan or (slightly more likely) Gabourey Sidibe will be able to overcome "newcomer status" and win the award, but I doubt it.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
My Prediction: Christoph Waltz. Because he gave the best performance by an actor in a supporting role this year. And even the Academy is capable of recognizing brilliance when someone walks up and smacks them in the face with it.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Mo'Nique (Precious)
My Prediction: Mo'Nique. Because the Academy loves a good bad guy. Penelope Cruz just won Best Supporting Actress last year, so she's out of the running. Maggie Gyllenhaal's performance hasn't really been getting much attention, and Vera Farmiga's performance in Up in the Air was overshadowed by co-star and fellow nominee Anna Kendrick. So if the award doesn't go to Mo'Nique, it will go to Kendrick.
Best Director
Nominees: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), James Cameron (Avatar), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
My Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow. Because not only did she direct the most critically praised film of any of the nominees, but she's also a woman, and no woman has ever won Best Director. James Cameron's film was not as well received, and he's won the award before. Lee Daniels is a newcomer, so the nomination is the Academy's nod to him. Jason Reitman and Quentin Tarantino both have very strong filmographies of critically praised films and a directing nomination without a win each, so it is possible that one of them could snag the award, but I'd say that those two are more likely to receive recognition for their films in the writing categories.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal), Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino), The Messenger (Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman), A Serious Man (The Coen Brothers), Up (Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy)
My Prediction: Inglourious Basterds. Because the closest second is The Hurt Locker, and that film is going to get its recognition elsewhere, in the Best Picture and Best Director categories, but the Academy will want to recognize Tarantino's accomplishment as well, and this is where they can do that.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: District 9 (Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell), An Education (Nick Hornby), In the Loop (Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche), Precious (Geoffrey Fletcher), Up in the Air (Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner)
My Prediction: Up in the Air. Because the Academy likes to award clever dialogue, and that's entirely what this movie is about. And like Inglourious Basterds, this is a film that the Academy would like to recognize with an award, and would rather do so here than in the Best Picture or Best Director categories. However, this is the trickiest category to call so far, so I wouldn't be surprised if In the Loop or maybe even An Education snatched the win.




























































