My Oscar Predictions

After all the writing I've been doing about my own alternative awards for the best in film from 2009, I'm kind of sick of talking about awards, but I still wanted to post my predictions for who will actually win this year's Oscars. So here goes...

Best Picture
Nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

My prediction: The Hurt Locker. Because critics simply loved this movie more than any other this year. It has a whopping 97% Fresh rating on Rottentomatoes.com, which is insane even for a critically loved film. Avatar had too many complaints against it, and James Cameron has won Best Picture before. Precious and District 9 don't have a shot, since they are both from (relative) newcomers. The Blind Side is exactly the kind of movie that caused the Academy to expand the category to ten nominees - a crowd-pleaser to whom they have no intention of actually giving the award. An Education and A Serious Man both received plenty of good reviews, but nobody really thought either was the best of the year. As far as Up goes, animated films just don't win Best Picture, and even though it was pretty much loved by all, Up is not going to be the movie to change that. Inglourious Basterds and Up in the Air are the two films which I would guess have the best shot at snatching the award away from The Hurt Locker, but when it comes down to it, The Hurt Locker was too universally praised to not win.

Best Actor
Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

My Prediction: Jeff Bridges. Because the guy is long overdue. This is his fifth nomination, and he's already won the Golden Globe and Screen Actor's Guild awards for this performance. While Jeremy Renner might have a slight chance, the Academy is much more likely to give the award to a well-respected multiple nominee like Bridges than an actor who's just starting to get people's attention.

Best Actress
Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

My Prediction: Sandra Bullock. Because the world is stupid. And the Academy has a tendency to mistake melodramatically speaking in a bad southern accent for acting. Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep are just nominated because they are Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep, and neither of their performances drew much praise beyond that. Maybe, just maybe either Carey Mulligan or (slightly more likely) Gabourey Sidibe will be able to overcome "newcomer status" and win the award, but I doubt it.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

My Prediction: Christoph Waltz. Because he gave the best performance by an actor in a supporting role this year. And even the Academy is capable of recognizing brilliance when someone walks up and smacks them in the face with it.

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Mo'Nique (Precious)

My Prediction: Mo'Nique. Because the Academy loves a good bad guy. Penelope Cruz just won Best Supporting Actress last year, so she's out of the running. Maggie Gyllenhaal's performance hasn't really been getting much attention, and Vera Farmiga's performance in Up in the Air was overshadowed by co-star and fellow nominee Anna Kendrick. So if the award doesn't go to Mo'Nique, it will go to Kendrick.

Best Director
Nominees: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), James Cameron (Avatar), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

My Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow. Because not only did she direct the most critically praised film of any of the nominees, but she's also a woman, and no woman has ever won Best Director. James Cameron's film was not as well received, and he's won the award before. Lee Daniels is a newcomer, so the nomination is the Academy's nod to him. Jason Reitman and Quentin Tarantino both have very strong filmographies of critically praised films and a directing nomination without a win each, so it is possible that one of them could snag the award, but I'd say that those two are more likely to receive recognition for their films in the writing categories.

Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal), Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino), The Messenger (Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman), A Serious Man (The Coen Brothers), Up (Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy)

My Prediction: Inglourious Basterds. Because the closest second is The Hurt Locker, and that film is going to get its recognition elsewhere, in the Best Picture and Best Director categories, but the Academy will want to recognize Tarantino's accomplishment as well, and this is where they can do that.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: District 9 (Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell), An Education (Nick Hornby), In the Loop (Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche), Precious (Geoffrey Fletcher), Up in the Air (Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner)

My Prediction: Up in the Air. Because the Academy likes to award clever dialogue, and that's entirely what this movie is about. And like Inglourious Basterds, this is a film that the Academy would like to recognize with an award, and would rather do so here than in the Best Picture or Best Director categories. However, this is the trickiest category to call so far, so I wouldn't be surprised if In the Loop or maybe even An Education snatched the win.

The Woody Awards: Best Picture

BEST PICTURE
My Nominees:
Avatar
Away We Go
The Brothers Bloom
District 9
Inglourious Basterds
Moon
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are

Oscar Nominees:
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Avatar

I had my complaints about Avatar, but ultimately, it worked for me. Watching it was a genuinely thrilling cinematic experience. In Pandora, James Cameron created a world that is lush and beautiful, and frankly it's no wonder that this film broke the world box office record, so enjoyable is the experience of being immersed in it.

Away We Go

I loved this movie. It is funny, genuine, relatable, and touching. John Krasinski and Maya Rudolph are both excellent as the lead couple, and the characters they encounter on their search for a new home are smartly written and well acted. This is a very intimate film, which allows the audience to really get to know its characters and experience their world.

The Brothers Bloom

Writer/director Rian Johnson's follow-up to Brick is truly unique. It is a comedy, a drama, and a crime caper, yet it is not what I think of when I think of any of those genres. It is a genuinely original and well-made work, filled with interesting, well-crafted characters and driven by a compelling story.

District 9

District 9 is a phenomenal debut by a very promising director. It is the kind of science fiction that I love - a story set in the real world, but with a not unbelievable twist. Writer/director Neill Blomkamp uses the presence of aliens to tell a very interesting character-based story, while at the same time examining what humanity's response to the film's strange visitors says about us.

Moon

Like District 9, Moon is a well-told science fiction story made by a first-time director (in this case, Duncan Jones). Also like District 9, this film is not about flashy special effects or crazy concepts, but is the human story of a well-developed central character. Sam Rockwell's performance is absolutely phenomenal, and the film's eerie mood is very well-crafted.

Star Trek

Watching Star Trek may just be the most fun I had in a movie theater in 2009. This film is everything that a good summer blockbuster should be - funny, exciting, and filled with great characters. J. J. Abrams and his ensemble cast live up to the legacy of Star Trek admirably and make it their own, delivering a compelling new version of the starship Enterprise and its crew.

Up

Pixar does it again! This time with the story of a sad old man and an enthusiastic little boy who find themselves becoming friends as they go on an adventure together. This movie contains moments that will bring tears to your eyes, but it is also very funny. And there is more emotional depth to Up's story than to most of the movies designed for adults which I've seen this year.

Up in the Air

Up in the Air is a fascinating and entertaining character study. Like most of Jason Reitman's films, it is about people. In this case, a guy who doesn't think he needs other people, but who experiences some changes in his thinking when two new women are introduced into his life - a love interest and a (kind of) protege. This movie is a funny, clever, observant story about human beings.

Where the Wild Things Are

It's kind of miraculous that a movie like this ever came to exist. Instead of a sappy, stupid, dumbed down Hollywood version of a beloved children's book, Spike Jonze delivers a very touching and intelligent examination of childhood and all the joys, fears, and uncertainties that come with being a kid. This movie could have very easily gone wrong, but Jonze lovingly crafted something special, that captures the same sense of childhood wonder which has made the book on which it is based so popular.

THE WINNER: INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

I'm sure anyone who's been reading my blog will not be surprised to see this winning Best Picture after winning so many other awards. But what can I say? Inglourious Basterds deserved each and every one of those other awards, and it deserves this one too. I feel like I've already said enough in previous posts about why this movie is so great, so I'll just say this: Inglourious Basterds was the best movie of 2009, and if you haven't seen it yet, you really should.

And that's it for The Woody Awards!

The Woody Awards: Best Director

BEST DIRECTOR
My Nominees:
J. J. Abrams, Star Trek
Neill Blomkamp, District 9
James Cameron, Avatar
Spike Jonze, Where the Wild Things Are
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Oscar Nominees:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

J. J. Abrams, Star Trek

Star Trek was one of my favorite movies of 2009, and the funny thing is, I wasn't particularly looking forward to it. But J. J. Abrams did something amazing with this movie - he managed to create a film based on a dead franchise (which even in its heyday lacked much mainstream appeal) which felt new and fresh and exciting while at the same time displaying the proper level of respect for the original. Some dedicated Trekkies have complained that the 2009 version is too action-oriented, while the original was more about ideas and concepts. But I think that Abrams did what was necessary with the style to allow viewers in 2009 to experience the same sense of wonder which fans of the original experienced in 1966.

Neill Blomkamp, District 9

Neill Blomkamp is the kind of director which Hollywood needs right now. With his feature film debut, he delivered a movie more exciting, more original, more emotionally affecting, and more beautifully filmed than most films released last year (or in the past five years, for that matter). And he did it with an original concept which he developed himself. Not to mention the film's superb visual effects - Blomkamp took his $30 million budget (Avatar's budget, by comparison, was estimated to be 0ver $300 million) and delivered a very real-looking piece of science fiction.

James Cameron, Avatar

Avatar may not be perfect, but you have to give James Cameron credit - it is certainly an accomplishment. He originally conceived of the concept for the film in 1994, but had to wait for the technology to develop which was required to make what he envisioned possible. He started production in 2006, and worked for three years to deliver the film we have today. Such a passionate dedication to a project, by a man who had to invent some of the technology he required as he went along, deserves recognition, and regardless of whether you love or hate Avatar, Cameron should be praised for the relentless devotion he displayed in bringing his vision to life.

Spike Jonze, Where the Wild Things Are

Where the Wild Things Are is a great adaptation, and that is mainly due to the fact that Spike Jonze clearly has a deep and fundamental understanding of the spirit of the original story, yet was totally fearless and unapologetic in making it his own. This film has his signature all over it, but always feels very much like the book on which it is based. From the script to the casting to the music to the overall tone of the movie, Jonze made some very difficult choices, taking a lot of risks, and the end product of those choices is beautiful, revealing that he knew exactly what he was doing all along.

THE WINNER: QUENTIN TARANTINO, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

I almost didn't choose Tarantino for this award because I didn't want to get repetitive with Inglourious Basterds winning everything, but then I realized how stupid that was, and how unfair it would be to overlook Tarantino's achievement simply to make things more interesting. Like every other individual winner from Inglourious Basterds, Tarantino earns this award himself. No matter how many movies he makes, you never know what to expect when sitting down to watch Tarantino's newest film. This man is a filmmaking genius. Just look at the tension he builds into every scene, the cleverly drawn characters scattered throughout the story, and the sheer boldness of the film's final act. This film has style AND substance, and it just might be Tarantino's masterpiece.

The Woody Awards: Best Actress

BEST ACTRESS

My Nominees:
Amy Adams, Sunshine Cleaning
Zooey Deschanel, (500) Days of Summer
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Maya Rudolph, Away We Go

Oscar Nominees:
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

(NOTE - When I made my initial list of nominees, I nominated Leslie Mann for Funny People in this category. But when I thought about it, I realized that she shouldn't be considered for Best Actress, since she really doesn't have a very prominent role in the film, and because her performance simply wasn't on the same level as those of the other nominees. So I removed her, and now there are only four nominees in this category, since I couldn't think of any actress whose role was prominent enough and whose performance was good enough to take the fifth place on the nominee list. My failure to think of a replacement could be because I missed whatever movies may have had worthy female lead performances, but I would argue that it is at least partially because there simply aren't as many good lead roles written for women as there are for men in movies today. But regardless of the reason, I didn't want to pick a nominee who didn't deserve to be nominated simply for the sake of having a fifth nominee.)

I tend to have the most objections to the Academy's nominations in this category, and this year is no exception. Admittedly, of the films featuring the nominees for Best Actress, I've only seen An Education (which features a fine, if less than great, performance by Carey Mulligan). And although I realize that most of the films featuring my nominees failed to get much (if any) attention from Oscar voters, I am saddened, if not terribly surprised, that they managed to overlook Melanie Laurent in Inglourious Basterds, a film that received 8 nominations, in favor of the likes of Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock. I haven't seen Julie & Julia, but I resent the fact that at this point in time, it is basically a given that Streep (with her ridiculous record of 16 nominations - is any one actress or actor that great?) will get nominated for any half-decent film in which she appears, just because she is who she is. And I haven't seen the Blind Side either, but I have seen the trailer, which I think tells me all I need to know. Sandra Bullock answering the declaration "You're changing that boy's life" with "No, he's changing mine," in an awful southern accent does not suggest to me that hers is one of the best performances of the year. Anyway, enough about the actual Oscar nominations, here are mine...

Amy Adams, Sunshine Cleaning

Amy Adams is great to watch in pretty much anything, and is, I think, one of the most promising actresses working today. In Sunshine Cleaning, she portrays a character who uses a bright, cheerful exterior to hide just how lonely and depressed she really is. Adams knows just how to effectively convey her character's seemingly sunny disposition while subtly hinting at the unhappiness that lies beneath at the same time. She creates a genuine, complex character who wants to be happy, but doesn't always know how, who is often overwhelmed by her responsibilities, yet keeps on going. Adams' ability to convincingly convey the balancing act her character performs every day draws the audience in and makes the viewer really care about her character.

Zooey Deschanel, (500) Days of Summer

Zooey Deschanel's character Summer, the titular woman who Joseph Gordon-Levitt's character Tom just can't get over, is very complicated. She breaks his heart for apparently no reason, but she's not mean. She doesn't believe in love, but she's not cold. Deschanel takes a character who could be seen as the antagonist if not handled correctly, and gives her so much depth and intelligence that the audience can completely understand why Tom falls in love with her. A large part of what makes this movie work is that, even though it is a break-up story told from the perspective of the dumped, the dumper is not a shallow, cruel bitch whose appeal to the protagonist is unfathomable, like in so many movies. Thanks to Deschanel, the viewer likes Summer, and is genuinely sad to see Tom lose her, not because of some inexplicable love which the script tells us he has for her, but because the viewer understands why Tom loves her, and wouldn't want to lose her either.

Maya Rudolph, Away We Go

As expecting mother Verona De Tessant in Away We Go, Maya Rudolph is both funny and genuine. The relationship between Verona and her partner Burt (played by John Krasinski, whose performance is also excellent) feels more real than most Hollywood couplings - their affection isn't thrown in the viewer's face, but subtly inserted into their honest, intelligent conversations. Rudolph's is the more nuanced of the two performances, and she manages to suggest a lot about the history of her character and her character's relationships (to Burt, to her sister, to her dead parents) in small moments punctuated with just the right amount of emotion, never over-acting, but never devoid of feeling. She makes the changes her character experiences as she undergoes the process of preparing for parenthood obvious without drawing too much attention to them, and creates a thoughtful, intelligent character.

THE WINNER - MELANIE LAURENT, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

Yes, this is yet another win for Inglourious Basterds. But let me stress that each of the winners for this film deserves the award independent of the other winners or the film as a whole, and Melanie Laurent, in her role as Shosanna Dreyfus, is certainly no different. The film's more flamboyant characters, such as Christoph Waltz's Hans Landa and Brad Pitt's Aldo Raine, make it easy to overlook the somber Shosanna, but Laurent plays her absolutely beautifully, and more than holds her own against the other performances. Whether Shosanna is brushing off a German soldier who's got a crush on her or planning her revenge with her lover Marcel, Laurent always projects a quiet, cold confidence. And the scene in which Shosanna is re-introduced to the man who murdered her family really showcases Laurent's talent as she perfectly conveys Shosanna's struggle to suppress her terror and maintain a calm exterior.

The Woody Awards: Best Actor

BEST ACTOR
My Nominees:
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Sharlto Copley, District 9
Tom Hardy, Bronson
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Sam Rockwell, Moon

Oscar Nominees:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

This category was NOT easy to narrow down to five nominees, and that's not even including performances in movies I've seen since I made the initial nominee list (Colin Firth in A Single Man) and some performances in movies I still haven't seen which I suspect would have been strong contenders if I had (Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart, Matt Damon in The Informant, and Viggo Mortenson in The Road, just to name a few). But even among the movies I have seen this year, I had to leave out some really great performances - such as Adrien Brody in The Brothers Bloom, Joseph Gordon-Levitt in (500) Days of Summer, and John Krasinski in Away We Go. All that being said, the difficulty I've just described of narrowing this category down should tell you just how terrific each of the performances that made the list is.

George Clooney, Up in the Air

George Clooney is the perfect choice to play Ryan Bingham, the smooth-talking guy who lives his life out of his suitcase and flies from city to city firing people. Actors don't come much more charming than Clooney, and it is charm that is his character's most vital asset. Clooney takes a character who could, played by the wrong actor, become unlikable very quickly, and makes him not just likable, but even, at times, relatable. His delivery of the film's quick, smart dialogue is perfect, and he projects exactly the kind of confidence that a character who spends his days firing people he's never met before (and actually kind of likes it) requires.

Tom Hardy, Bronson

Of all my nominees that failed to get nominated for the actual Oscars, I find it most surprising that the Academy overlooked Tom Hardy's performance as real-life British prisoner Charles Bronson. Maybe he wasn't eligible for technical reasons (you never can be sure with the stunningly arbitrary rules the Oscars abide by), but this is the kind of performance that Oscar voters typically love - an up-and-coming actor playing a controversial and interesting real-life figure (Tom Cruise in Born on the Fourth of July, Denzel Washington in Malcolm X, and Joaquin Phoenix in Walk the Line are just a few of countless examples). But putting all that aside, Tom Hardy is phenomenal in this film. He creates a violent yet charismatic character, and he completely commands the audience's attention for every second he is onscreen. He does not come across as an actor who has studied and is imitating the voice, mannerisms and body movements of a real person, but as a totally insane man who just happens to have been caught on camera.

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

While I wasn't as blown away by The Hurt Locker as a lot of people were, Renner's performance as Sergeant William James is undeniably great, and it is that very well-crafted performance that makes this movie work. While The Hurt Locker is an action/war movie, it is also a character study of a cocksure explosives expert who has found the one thing in life that he is absolutely brilliant at doing, and who pursues that one thing almost like an addiction. He uses a brash over-confidence to hide the deep need he has developed to continue doing the one thing at which he excels. This film would not be nearly as affecting if Renner wasn't able to bring such a lifelike quality to his character.

Sharlto Copley, District 9

This is Sharlto Copley's feature film debut, and his performance in this movie is better than anything many of our most well-known actors have done in years. He plays a flawed, imperfect character with such realism that the viewer never doubts for a second that he is anything but a low-level corporate bureucrat telling a documentary crew about his work. What is truly amazing is the fact that Copley's ability to maintain that same level of realism never wavers as the film departs from the documentary-style beginning and introduces its more fantastical plot developments. Copley, as Wikus van de Merwe, feels like an everyday guy from the beginning of the movie to the end, and the audience can feel his fear and desperation for every second of it. Rather than giving the audience a traditional hero, Copley portrays an unpolished character who is mostly just interested in his own wellbeing and who sometimes does the wrong thing. Copley's performance is so fantastic that I had a really hard time deciding who to choose for Best Actor, and he is a very close runner-up to...

THE WINNER: SAM ROCKWELL, MOON

(SPOILER ALERT - In order to discuss Sam Rockwell's performance in Moon, I'm going to have to give away a few plot details, but nothing that happens beyond the first thirty minutes of the film. So if you don't want to know anything at all about what happens in this movie, skip the following and just know that Moon is one of the best movies of 2009, and Sam Rockwell is fantastic in it. That being said, I'm not going to give anything away that will ruin the movie for you - the development that I'm talking about is really just the setup for the main plot of the film, and I think it may have even been revealed in the trailer.)

If ever there was a movie that hinges upon one actor's performance(s), Moon is it. And Sam Rockwell delivers. In what is actually not just one, but two great performances, Rockwell creates a believable character, then creates another take on that same character, and watching his two versions of the same character interact with one another is fascinating. Rockwell truly carries this movie singlehandedly - he is the only actor that appears actually onscreen for more than a few seconds in the entire film, with very minor support coming from actors who appear in brief video messages to his character and Kevin Spacey as the monotonal voice of the base's computer/robot. But I am not praising Rockwell simply for the fact that he is virtually the only actor in the movie. It is Rockwell's brilliantly nuanced performance that makes what could have, in the wrong hands, been a very boring concept not just a compelling character study, but a fascinating science fiction mystery.